Holding the House
"Can Republicans hold the House?" is already a common question.
One of the most common questions I get asked – and that I ask of others – is whether Republicans can hold the House in 2026. From a historical, nerdy political science-y perspective, the answer is something like, “It’s almost impossible.”
Since 1934 – the timeframe used in the data from The American Presidency Project at the University of California at Santa Barbara, and a decent approximation of the modern era with mass media – the average number of seats lost for the President’s party in a midterm election is 27. It’s worth noting that the President’s party tends to lose fewer seats when they hold fewer seats heading into the election. With 220 seats currently, history (and the UCSB’s regression model) suggests Republicans should lose 23 to 24 seats.
The President’s party does better when the President holds higher job approval, of course, but that simple statement understates the point. The only times since Gallup started releasing polling in the October before a midterm election that a president’s party has gained seats were in 1998 and 2002. Bill Clinton had a job approval rating of sixty-five percent (and Democrats gained five seats), while George W. Bush had a rating of sixty-seven percent (and Republicans gained eight seats). In case you’re wondering, the last time a President held job approval that high was in the first few months of President Obama’s first term (66% in May 2009).
Whether we use Gallup’s current percent job approval for President Trump of 43 percent, or something slightly higher (47.1 percent in Real Clear Politics with some polls I can’t take seriously, or 45 percent in the NYT average, all as of June 2), Republicans would still be looking at a loss on the order of 30 seats.
How to Defy History
While, “Can Republicans hold the House?” is a common question, it’s not the best question. The best question is, “What do Republicans need to do to hold the House?” The answer there is not as bleak as the historical comparisons suggest.
First, Republicans need to make Democrats own their votes for a tax increase. Every Democrat in the House cast a vote to increase taxes this past week when they voted against the House reconciliation bill.1 The House version of the bill protects the average taxpayer from a 22 percent tax hike, and that’s before taking into account the increase in the SALT deduction that could be helpful in suburban districts next fall. It wouldn’t be a stretch to see that issue swing VA10 next year, for example, with Democrat Suhas Subramanyam defeating Republican Mike Clancy by less than five points last year. Almost any family in the district with a home and combined income of $100,000 will see an increase in their deductions with the caps extended beyond $10,000.
Second, Republicans need a clear message on Medicaid. The 2022 elections showed what can happen when they lack a consistent message on an issue that Democrats are eager to use against them.2 In this case, the Democrats’ messaging is easy: “Republicans are cutting health care for the people who are most in need.” The Republican response is harder, but valid: “We are cutting access for illegal immigrants, and requiring able-bodied adults to work, so that we can preserve the program for those who are most in need.” Without a quick response that gets Republicans back on offense regarding the border and cutting the profligate spending post-Covid, they risk being bogged down on Democratic turf.
Third, Republicans need to start voting on laws to enshrine the parts of the Trump agenda they support. Currently, much of the Trump agenda is at risk of being overturned by the courts, or being cast aside by the next Democratic president.3 In voting to give these executive orders the permanence of law, the Republican Congress would go a long way toward helping turn out the base in November 2026. If they pass a conservative agenda, House members will show there was a good reason to put them in office. If they fall short of passage, House members will demonstrate the need for more Republican members and make Democrats own a record. Just as every Democrat in the House now owns a vote for a tax hike, they could own votes against border enforcement and supporting Israel. For better or worse, animus drives midterm turnout. Republicans need to give voters a reason to vote against Democratic incumbents, or risk letting 2026 conform to the vast majority of midterm results.
Thomas Massie (KY 04) and Warren Davidson (OH 08) were the two Republican “no” votes.
Republicans’ failure to figure out how to talk about abortion, after 50 years of fighting to overturn Roe v Wade, is one of the great political own-goals of all time. That’s an entire post in-and-of itself. Suffice it to say, smart and earnest politicians can pull off talking about tough issues, even when the media is stacked against them.
Yes, this is a trend with presidents of both parties failing to get their agenda passed, and their executive orders getting overturned on day one of the next administration.